The Prediction Markets We Were Promised: A Guide to Slaying Dragons With Oracles, Commitments, and Blockchains
In this post we'll walk through the inner-workings of prediction markets and the systems they exist inside of.
Gabriel P. Andrade
LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule)
The most popular prediction markets today use order books and continuous double auctions because they allow venues to externalize risk, but these markets have several known limitations
Prediction Markets are Learning Algorithms
In this piece we’ll unpack this similarity and reveal that, in many cases, they are formally equivalent in a strong sense. We’ll discuss which classes of prediction markets are mathematically identical to standard online learning...